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TotalEnergies $5.7B Profit, U.S. Rig Count Loose and Crude Oil April Update

TotalEnergies kicked off 2024 with a net income of $5.7 billion in the first quarter, marking a modest 3% increase from the same period last year and a 13% rise from the previous quarter. This growth occurred despite experiencing drops in both the volume and price of gas sales over the year and the quarter.

Their adjusted net earnings, which exclude one-time or unusual items, were $5.1 billion. This represents a significant 22% decline compared to last year and a slight 2% drop from the last quarter. The company's earnings before tax, depreciation, and amortization reached $11.5 billion, while their cash flow from operations significantly decreased to $2.2 billion, falling by 58% from last year and a steep 87% from the previous quarter. TotalEnergies also recorded $644 million in impairments.

On the production front, TotalEnergies maintained a steady output, producing 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboepd) in the first quarter, nearly unchanged from the prior quarter. This consistency was due to the balancing act of selling off stakes in Canadian oil sands while adding new capacity in Brazil and Nigeria. The company sold its interests in the Fort Hills and Surmont oil sands to ConocoPhillips Co. and Suncor Energy Inc. in 2023.

Despite these changes, the company noted a 2% year-over-year decrease in total output. Oil production, including bitumen, averaged 1.3 MMbopd, while gas production, including condensates and associated natural gas liquids, was at 1.1 MMboepd. Their liquefied natural gas (LNG) output was reported at 492,000 boepd.

In the downstream sector, TotalEnergies’ LNG selling prices averaged $9.58 per MMBtu, a decrease of 28% from last year and 7% from the previous quarter. Prices for gas excluding LNG averaged $5.11 per MMbtu, down by 43% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter.

TotalEnergies attributed a 9% quarter-to-quarter decrease in LNG sales mainly to reduced demand in Europe, influenced by milder winter weather and high existing inventories.

What About Rig Looses?

Last week, the North American rig count fell to 731, with the U.S. losing six rigs and Canada dropping nine, according to Baker Hughes. This count includes 613 rigs from the U.S. and 118 from Canada. In the U.S., the majority are land rigs, totaling 596, while 17 are offshore. Specifically, there are 506 oil rigs, 105 gas rigs, and two miscellaneous rigs. The breakdown also includes 552 horizontal rigs, 14 vertical rigs, and 47 directional rigs.

Within the week, the U.S. saw reductions across the board: three land rigs and three offshore rigs were dropped, five oil rigs were cut, and one gas rig was reduced. Additionally, the U.S. lost three horizontal and three directional rigs.

Regionally, Texas bucked the trend slightly by adding one rig. In contrast, Louisiana saw a significant reduction, losing four rigs, while Colorado, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania each dropped one.

In Canada, the current rig count of 118 includes 62 gas rigs and 56 oil rigs. Over the past week, the country saw a decrease of five gas rigs and four oil rigs.

Compared to the previous year, the total North American rig count has decreased by 117 rigs. This decline is largely attributed to the U.S., which has cut 142 rigs, while Canada has increased its count by 25 rigs. This includes a net decrease of 85 oil rigs and 56 gas rigs in the U.S., while Canada has added five gas rigs and 20 oil rigs over the same period.

Just before this latest count, on April 19, Baker Hughes reported a decrease of 12 rigs in North America from the week before. That update showed Canada cutting 14 rigs while the U.S. added two.

Crude Oil Trends

From March to December 2022, the U.S. government sold between 10 million and 30 million barrels of oil each month from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to stabilize fluctuating oil prices. Recent data has brought unexpected news about U.S. oil inventories despite these efforts.

According to the latest report from EIA, there was a surprising decline in U.S. crude inventories, which fell by 6.4 million barrels in one week, from April 12 to April 19. This decrease was contrary to expectations, as analysts had anticipated an increase of 825,000 barrels. As a result, current U.S. crude oil inventories stand at 453.6 million barrels, about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Despite these projections, other figures still need to catch up on their forecasts. Analysts had predicted that crude stockpiles would rise by 600,000 barrels. Instead, the government has been refilling the SPR, adding 648,000 barrels, bringing the total to 364.9 million barrels.

At Cushing, Oklahoma, the primary delivery hub for NYMEX crude, inventories slightly increased by 33,000 barrels, reaching 33 million barrels. Meanwhile, refinery capacity utilization decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 88.1%, against a predicted increase of 0.6 percentage points.

U.S. crude oil production remained stable at 13.1 million barrels a day. Crude imports increased to 6.5 million barrels a day, and exports increased by 2 million barrels a day to 4.7 million barrels a day.

Despite the current capacity of the SPR standing at 365.7 million barrels as of April 19, 2024, which marks an increase over the past few months, it's still significantly down from previous years. The SPR is 38% lower than the 593.7 million barrels recorded at the end of 2021 and about half of its peak of 726 million barrels between late 2009 and early 2011. With the U.S. consuming approximately 20 million barrels of oil each day, the existing SPR supplies would only cover 18 days of national demand.

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