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Permian: Oil Pipeline Takeaway. Too Much or Just Fit?

Midstream key regional players continue to plot new pipelines to take all the petroleum from West Texas to refineries, export hubs and petrochemical plants.

However, even with production from the Permian Basin being up 24% since the year began, the capacities being built may not find their customers.

Almost a two-fold increase in takeaway will mean lower margins. Production will ot keep up with such growth soon enough.

No operator abandons exisitng projects. Yet, a hunt for partners has begun.
Among the players involved are Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI), DCP Midstream LP (NYSE: DPM), and also Targa Resources Corp. (NYSE: TRGP) not to mentione others.

Some analysts say output can accommodate many of the new transportation lines. Permian production should rise through 2026 but it may peak sooner.

The competition for deals to fill the pipelines is so fierce that margins for operating the lines are likely to be thin without consolidation.

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Permian Basin Kinder Morgan

Energy Transfer LP Races to Carry Permian Basin Gas to Gulf Coast Hubs

The ever-increasing demand for natural gas exports from the Gulf Coast started a race to further develop Permian Basin. Various companies, including Kinder Morgan and MPLX, are among those looking at building new pipelines in the region due to the demand spike. But Energy Transfer seems to edge past them into the lead since its project strikes as the most economical option for the basin outside of capacity expansions on existing pipelines and could essentially add 1.5-2 Bcf/d of transport capacity with just 260 miles of new pipe.

Sempra Energy would develop the 4.0-mmtpa Vista Pacifico LNG export facility located next to the company's Terminal for Refined Products in Topolobampo in a bid to provide gas from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico to Asian markets. Once marketing begins, Sempra's management expects Vista Pacifico to be oversubscribed.

Oil output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico is supposed to go up 88,000 bbl/d to a record 5.219 million bbl/d in June, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced in its report on May 16. Additionally, gas productivity in the Permian Basin and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will rise to record highs of 20 Bcf/d and 15.1 Bcf/d in June, respectively. Given that this growth has been expected, recent global market changes make forecasting the output even more challenging. Learning how production will change is easier with early activity tracking, a new service recently launched by Rextag – Pad Activity Monitor. With the help of PAM, you are able to monitor well pad clearing, drilling operations, fracking crew deployment and completions with new data collected approximately every 2 days. Additionally, it cuts down activity reporting lag times by at least 98%, from 120-180 days down to just 5-8 days. In order to access reports, charts, tables, and mapping visualizations via Rextag’s Energy DataLink use a web-based application allowing users to filter, download and identify activity on a map or data table. Moreover, customers will be able to set up daily, weekly, and monthly email report notifications.

The EIA forecasts that total output in the main U.S. shale oil basins will increase 142,000 bbl/d to 8.761 million bbl/d in June, the most since March 2020. Oil productivity in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico is supposed to go up 88,000 bbl/d to a record 5.219 million bbl/d in June, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced in its report on May 16. In the largest shale gas basin, the productivity in Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia will grow up to 35.7 Bcf/d in June, its highest since beating a record 36 Bcf/d in December 2021. Gas output in the Permian Basin and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will rise to record highs of 20 Bcf/d and 15.1 Bcf/d in June, respectively. Speaking of the Permian future output, putting hands on upcoming changes in production has recently been made easier with the new Rextag's service - Pad Activity Monitor. Thanks to satellite imagery and artificial intelligence, customers are able to monitor the oil and gas wells and are provided with near real-time activity reports related to drilling operations. However, it is noticed that productivity in the largest oil and gas basins has decreased every month since setting records of new oil well production per rig of 1,544 bbl/d in December 2020 in the Permian Basin, and new gas well production per rig of 33.3 MMcf/d in March 2021 in Appalachia.

No sooner had the crude prices soared above $100/bbl than the industry professionals believed in an incredible growth of drilling activity in North America’s largest shale patch. Analysts speculate that additional output of 500,000 barrels of oil daily would become a significant part (4%) of overall U.S. daily production. That is going to flatter oil and gasoline prices. Drilling permits in the Permian Basin are persistently growing, averaging approximately 210 at the beginning of April. Moreover, the permits trend is noticed as an all-time high as a total of 904 horizontal drilling permits were awarded last month. Nowadays, learning and analysing the current situation and predicting the future development become easier with early activity tracking, a new service recently launched by Rextag. Rextag's Pad Activity monitor (PAM) allows you to see well pad clearing, drilling operations, fracking crew deployment and completions with new data collected approximately every 2 days with the help of satellite imagery and artificial intelligence. While the increase in drilling will result in higher production, U.S. shale producers will have to overcome several hurdles including labor shortages and supply constraints.

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