The future once seemed optimistic for America’s climate ambitions, with rapid growth in renewable energy propelling the nation toward a cleaner, more sustainable future. 

However, a sobering reality has begun to sink in: despite some progress, the transition from fossil fuels is slowing down, and global emissions continue to rise. 

Several factors—rising costs, swelling demand for electricity, and a slow technological rollout—have delayed the necessary shift away from fossil fuels. 

Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are growing at impressive rates, surpassing initial expectations. Yet, despite this growth, a surge in power demand is overwhelming the additional capacity generated by renewables. This imbalance is forcing many utilities to rely on fossil fuels, including coal, for much longer than anticipated.

Increasing Emissions Despite Efforts

Even as investments in clean energy technologies rise, global greenhouse gas emissions are hitting record levels. The scientific community warns that without a more decisive response, the consequences of climate change—floods, heat waves, and other natural disasters—will worsen. Predictions indicate that 2024 could be the hottest year ever recorded, further stressing the urgency of addressing the climate crisis.

“The pace of our response is obviously totally insufficient,” says Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich. “At this rate, it will become increasingly impossible to face the changing climate we are going to experience.” 

Financial Needs to Accelerate the Energy Transition

The financial landscape of clean energy has evolved dramatically over the past decade. The falling costs of renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar initially spurred investment from both the public and private sectors. By the early 2020s, trillions of dollars were being channeled into developing new technologies, while major industries like automotive started rethinking their carbon footprints. Companies began disclosing emissions data, and governments introduced incentives to promote cleaner energy use.

The Uphill Struggle: Challenges and Hopes

The difficulty in transitioning to a clean energy future is not surprising. The shift away from fossil fuels is inherently a complex, expensive, and massive undertaking that involves a complete rethinking of industries, infrastructure, and consumer habits. In 2022, the passage of significant U.S. climate legislation—lauded as a landmark victory—had generated hope that change was not only possible but imminent. But hopes of an accelerated transition have been tempered by a combination of logistical and economic challenges.

More than 40% of the world’s electricity came from low-carbon sources in 2023, with wind and solar energy making up over 90% of new power capacity. 

Yet despite these gains, rising power demand is straining the system. For example, utilities in the U.S. have been making significant progress by transitioning from coal to natural gas and renewables. However, new factories, data centers, and other energy-intensive infrastructures are undermining these advancements. As the global economy continues to digitize, the resulting strain on the energy grid is leading to increased use of fossil fuels.

Paul Segal, CEO of LS Power, which operates natural gas and renewable energy projects, echoes this concern: “We really are going to need just about every resource that’s available if demand growth continues at a rapid pace.” Research firm Rhodium Group projects that U.S. electricity demand could rise by 24% to 29% by 2035—nearly double what it anticipated just a year ago.

Power Grids Under Strain

One of the most telling examples of the energy sector’s struggle is New York State’s ambitious goal to obtain 70% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. Delays in permitting, rising costs, and the cancellation of several offshore wind projects have derailed the plan. In response, New York Governor Kathy Hochul acknowledged the complexity of the situation, noting, “The goals are still worthy, but we have to think about the collateral damage of all of our major decisions.”

Across the globe, the picture remains uneven. While China leads the world in wind and solar output, accounting for more than a third of global renewable energy capacity, the spread of electric vehicles (EVs) in the U.S. and Europe has been slower than expected. In 2023, one in five new cars sold globally was electric, a dramatic rise from just 2% six years ago. Yet in key regions, EV adoption is still lagging, and industries like building efficiency—responsible for a significant portion of global emissions—saw investment decline in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The High Stakes of Fossil Fuel Dependency

Decisions made today will lock in energy systems and emissions patterns for decades to come. In the U.S., multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals are being constructed to meet future energy demands in fast-growing regions like Southeast Asia. While wind and solar are expanding in these areas, limitations in grid capacity and infrastructure are slowing the transition.

Nitin Apte, CEO of Vena Energy, a renewable energy developer, expresses frustration: “It’s like we’re running really, really hard, and we’re still not running in place.”

Sticking with fossil fuels carries long-term risks, particularly for countries already vulnerable to climate-related disasters. In the Philippines, where plans call for increased reliance on both natural gas and renewables, the nation continues to experience devastating losses from floods and typhoons. Swiss Re, a leading reinsurance firm, notes that the Philippines suffers more weather-related economic damage, as a share of GDP than any other country.

Corporate Climate Plans Losing Ground

Among private companies, climate-related goals are slipping down the corporate agenda. In 2023, many CEOs ranked sustainability lower on their list of priorities, behind inflation and the emergence of artificial intelligence, according to Bain & Company. Some automakers, including Ford and General Motors, have scaled back their ambitions for electric vehicle rollouts due to slowing demand, and Volvo recently dropped its target of becoming fully electric by the end of the decade.

The challenges aren’t confined to the auto industry. Mining giant Glencore, once under pressure from shareholders to divest its coal operations, reversed its decision as momentum for sustainable investing waned. Even in sectors with strong climate mandates, rising costs and waning enthusiasm have dampened efforts.

Technological Innovation: A Glimmer of Hope

Amid the daunting challenges, hope still rests on the development of new technologies. Venture capital is flowing into green tech startups, raising expectations that breakthroughs in areas such as battery storage, carbon capture, and alternative fuels could eventually turn the tide. For instance, Form Energy, a company that produces iron-based batteries capable of storing electricity for extended periods, has received large orders from utilities and plans to ramp up production in the coming years.

However, even with significant financial support, the impact of these technologies remains uncertain. Mateo Jaramillo, CEO of Form Energy, notes, “Even that—which is a massively successful business, assuming we get there—is a tiny drop in the bucket.”

Recent investments in startups that produce low-carbon aviation fuel, as well as a $1.56 billion loan commitment for an ammonia producer that aims to capture its carbon emissions, demonstrate the scale of the challenge ahead. Yet, without broader structural changes in the global economy, such developments alone are unlikely to deliver the reductions needed to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

A Critical Crossroad

America’s climate ambitions now stand at a critical juncture. The path forward is fraught with obstacles—rising energy demand, political resistance, corporate retreat from sustainability commitments, and a reliance on fossil fuels that shows no sign of abating.

While renewable energy continues to make impressive strides, it is not yet sufficient to meet the growing global appetite for power. If policymakers, businesses, and consumers cannot collectively push forward with stronger resolve, the opportunity to limit global warming to manageable levels will slip away. The time for action is running out, and the world must decide whether to accelerate the energy transition or face the increasingly severe consequences of climate inaction.

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