Supplemental Information of Eastern Shore Natural Gas Company under CP15-18.

REPORT Winter Reliability Analysis of New England Energy Markets Prepared for: New England Power Generators Association Prepared by: Energyzt Advisors, LLC October 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 1 2 NEW ENGLAND ENERGY MARKETS ON JANUARY 7, 2014 .......................................... 2 2.1 Gas Market Conditions ........................................................................................................ 2 2.2 Power Market Conditions .................................................................................................. 5 3 WINTER RELIABILITY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 8 3.1 Natural Gas Available to New England.......................................................................... 9 3.1.1 Pipeline Capacity........................................................................................................... 9 3.1.2 LNG Capacity ............................................................................................................... 10 3.1.3 Peak Gas Demand ...................................................................................................... 12 3.1.4 Gas Available for Generation ................................................................................. 13 3.2 Generating Capacity .......................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 Gross Generating Capacity ..................................................................................... 14 3.2.2 Capacity Additions .................................................................................................... 15 3.2.3 Capacity Retirements ............................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Forced Outages ........................................................................................................... 16 3.2.5 Derate Factors for Intermittent Resources ..................................................... 16 3.2.6 Fuel Limits .................................................................................................................... 18 3.3 Imports of Power into New England........................................................................... 18 3.4 Peak Power Demand ......................................................................................................... 20 3.5 Summary of Winter Peak Base Case Assumptions ................................................ 21 4 ANALYSES AND RESULTS ....................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Expected Reserve Margins under Winter Peak Base Case ................................. 23 4.2 Sensitivity Analyses ...........................................................................................