Comment of Jonathan Strong regarding filing for David Mucklow - Request for Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) under PF15-10.

U.S. LNG Exports: Impacts on Energy Markets and the Economy Submitted by: ICF International 9300 Lee Highway May 15, 2013 Fairfax, VA USA ICF Contact Harry Vidas 703-218-2745 Other ICF Contributors William Pepper Kevin Petak Frank Brock Submitted to: Julio Manik American Petroleum Institute 1220 L Street NW Robert H. Hugman Washington, D.C. 20005 Briana Adams Thu Nguyen blank page Warranties and Representations. ICF endeavors to provide information and projections consistent with standard practices in a professional manner. ICF MAKES NO WARRANTIES, HOWEVER, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED (INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY WARRANTIES OR MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE), AS TO THIS MATERIAL. Specifically but without limitation, ICF makes no warranty or guarantee regarding the accuracy of any forecasts, estimates, or analyses, or that such work products will be accepted by any legal or regulatory body. Waivers. Those viewing this Material hereby waive any claim at any time, whether now or in the future, against ICF, its officers, directors, employees or agents arising out of or in connection with this Material. In no event whatsoever shall ICF, its officers, directors, employees, or agents be liable to those viewing this Material. Key Findings on Economic Impacts of U.S. LNG Exports In order to inform the current policy debate surrounding the granting of licenses for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the American Petroleum Institute (API) commissioned ICF International to undertake a study of the energy market and economic impacts of LNG exports. The following table shows the key findings in terms of the average change in employment, GDP, and natural gas prices attributed to LNG exports between 2016 and 2035. Employment and GDP impacts are incremental changes relative to the Zero Exports Case. Key Economic Impacts Relative to the Zero Exports Case LNG Export Case (Change from Zero Exports Case) Impact (2016-2035 Averages)* ICF Base Case Middle Exports Case High Exports Case (up to ~4 Bcfd) (up to ~8 Bcfd) (up to ~16 Bcfd) Employment Change (No.) 73,100-145,100 112,800-230,200 220,100-452,300 GDP Change (2010$ Billion) $15.6-$22.8 $25.4-$37.2 $50.3-$73.6 Henry Hub Price (2010$/MMBtu) $5.03 $5.30 $5.73 Henry Hub Price Change (2010$/MMBtu) $0.32 $0.59 $1.02 Source: ICF estimates. Note: * Includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts The main conclusions of this study are: The net effects on U.S. employment from LNG exports are projected to be positive with average net job growth of 73,100 to 452,300 between 2016 and 2035, including all economic multiplier effects. This wide estimated range reflects the fact that the net job impacts will depend, ...