Oil companies across the Gulf of Mexico are springing into action as Tropical Storm Rafael bears down, marking yet another disruption in a storm-laden season. BP, Chevron, Equinor, and Shell are evacuating offshore staff and preparing for potential impacts on their platforms, an all-too-familiar ritual for Gulf operators this year.
BP has already begun evacuating non-essential personnel from key platforms like Argos, Thunder Horse, and Mad Dog. Chevron, following suit, is relocating workers from Big Foot and Petronius, while Shell is clearing out staff from platforms including Appomattox, Vito, and Enchilada-Salsa. Equinor has gone further, halting production entirely with a complete evacuation underway.
Rafael, currently packing winds of 60 mph, could intensify into a hurricane as it tracks past the Cayman Islands toward Cuba. However, the National Hurricane Center warns that Rafael might weaken back to a tropical storm before hitting the Gulf Coast. Still, companies are taking no chances given the Gulf’s experience with earlier storms this year—Francine, Helene, and Milton among them.
The potential impact is significant: Rafael could disrupt as much as 4.9 million barrels of oil and 6.39 billion cubic feet of natural gas production per day, according to Earth Science Associates. This would be the season's 17th named storm and the 10th since late September. Earlier forecasts from the Energy Information Administration had predicted as many as 25 storms, warning of record-breaking disruptions for the oil and gas industry.
Amid volatile markets driven by election uncertainties and Middle East tensions, Rafael adds fresh anxiety to already jittery energy prices. As Gulf operators and markets brace for Rafael’s impact, the season’s end feels anything but certain.
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