As U.S. shale gas output faces mounting economic challenges, Canada is presented with a timely opportunity to strengthen and expand its natural gas exports—though advancing key infrastructure projects like the Sunrise Expansion Program will be essential.
The once-reliable supply of American shale gas, long a foundation of North America's energy mix, is now under pressure. Leading producers have flagged reduced output due to rising costs, declining well productivity, and lower capital investment. With fewer new wells being brought online, the U.S. shale sector may no longer sustain its past production pace—opening a potential supply gap across the continent.
While this trend signals concern for North America’s energy future, it also presents a strategic opening for Canada. With vast reserves and favorable geography, Canada is well-positioned to help fill the gap—and play a more prominent role in global natural gas markets.
Canada’s Window of Opportunity
Canada currently exports around 8.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas to the United States. But industry analysts say that’s just the beginning. With sufficient infrastructure investment, Canada could expand that volume significantly and secure a greater role in international energy markets.
“Canada is poised not just to fill the U.S. shale gap, but to become a global energy leader,” said Stewart Muir, CEO of Resource Works. “With the right infrastructure in place, we have the potential to meet domestic needs and supply fast-growing overseas markets.”
LNG Canada Ships First Cargo on July 1
A major milestone was reached on July 1, 2025, when LNG Canada successfully shipped its first cargo from Kitimat, British Columbia (see the map by Rextag). This marks the start of commercial operations at Canada’s first large-scale LNG export terminal and the first such facility on the west coast of North America—offering direct shipping routes to energy-hungry markets across Asia.
LNG Canada, led by Shell, is expected to process up to 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) once fully operational. According to Shell CFO Sinead Gorman, the terminal is currently loading one cargo per week as it ramps up. Although some startup delays have been reported—including the diversion of an empty tanker from Kitimat—market observers expect operations to stabilize soon.
The startup has yet to lift Canadian gas prices significantly, due in part to an ongoing supply glut. However, analysts believe continued exports will begin to balance the market over time, especially as full production levels are reached.
Pipeline Expansion Will Be Key
To meet growing global demand and capitalize on the LNG opportunity, Canada must continue investing in its natural gas infrastructure. A key initiative in this effort is the Sunrise Expansion Program by Enbridge’s Westcoast Energy (see the map by Rextag). The project proposes a 137-kilometer, 42-inch diameter pipeline from Chetwynd, B.C., to the Canada–U.S. border near Sumas, aimed at improving gas flow to export terminals.
In addition to new pipeline segments, the project includes upgrades to compressor stations and energy transmission systems. This enhanced capacity is critical to ensuring Canadian gas can reach both U.S. and overseas buyers efficiently.
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) is currently soliciting public input on the Sunrise Expansion Program. Industry leaders and policymakers are encouraging Canadians to engage with the process and support infrastructure that advances energy security and economic resilience.
