CEO defends forecast, says projections have been “spot on” despite pushback
Diamondback Energy is holding its oil output steady through the end of 2025, even as it nudges its total production outlook upward. The Texas-based operator laid out the update in its second-quarter earnings report this week.
Chief executive Kaes Van’t Hof stood by the company’s earlier projections, saying they’ve been “spot on” with how the shale sector has played out this year — despite some “pushback” from peers in the Permian.
Diamondback narrowed its full-year oil guidance to 485,000–492,000 barrels per day, trimming both ends of the previously announced 480,000–495,000 bpd range. Meanwhile, total production guidance (including gas) was lifted 2% to 890,000–910,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
And to better understand the historical output performance of Diamondback’s wells in the Permian, including full-year 2024 data, explore our recent analytics report:
👉 What Comes After the Permian for IOCs? A Basin of Enormous Value
Capital spending is also coming down. The company cut its full-year capex forecast by 13% — or $500 million — to a range of $3.4 to $3.6 billion. It’s a continuation of the cautionary stance Diamondback took earlier this year as oil prices slumped.
In a letter to shareholders, Van’t Hof made the outlook clear: the company sees “no compelling reason to increase activity this year.” He suggested U.S. shale production “has likely peaked,” with activity in the Lower 48 expected to stay muted.
He pointed to a steep drop in drilling activity across the sector — noting 60 fewer oil-directed rigs and a 25% decline in active completion crews in the Permian so far this year. Diamondback itself released four rigs in Q2, bringing its total to 13. It expects to operate 12 to 14 rigs and five completion crews through year-end.
“Fortunately, the likelihood of a massive oil supply glut combined with an oil demand shock seems to have dissipated (on the demand side),” Van’t Hof said. “But the projected increase in global oil supply in the second half of this year is hard to ignore.”
For those tracking long-term Permian trends, Diamondback has consistently ranked among the top producers in the basin. But exactly where did it land in 2023? Find out in this detailed 5-year production leaderboard:
👉 Top Permian Oil and Gas Producers: Five-Year Production
Still, production has climbed. Diamondback averaged 495,700 bpd of oil in Q2, up 80% year-over-year, while total output soared 94% to 919,900 boepd — boosted by efficiency gains and the Endeavor Energy acquisition. The company credited “better than expected volume performance” across the board.
Revenue rose 48% to $3.68 billion in the second quarter, though profits slipped 16% to $837 million.
Speaking on the Q2 call, Van’t Hof addressed criticism of the company’s early 2025 forecast: “I wasn't trying to be all doom and gloom,” he said. “But I think what we're trying to say is how sensitive shale has become to prices — at probably a higher level than everybody expected three or four years ago when we were all burning through capital at $50 oil.”
Looking ahead, he added, “I'm cautiously optimistic on ’26, but right now for the rest of ’25, we're hunkering down and maintaining our flexibility for next year.”
Notably, this isn’t the first time Diamondback has made headlines for bold moves. Earlier this year, we covered its $26 billion merger with Endeavor, a game-changing event that reshaped the Permian power structure:
👉 Diamondback and Endeavor’s $26 Billion Merger Creates a Permian Titan
