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Wind and Solar Beat Coal for the First Time in U.S. — But Can They Compete with Natural Gas?
03/18/2025
Solar and Wind Set Records—Is the U.S. Grid Ready for More?
According to an analysis from clean-energy think tank Ember, wind and solar energy generated more electricity in the U.S. than coal for the first time last year. The two renewable energy sources accounted for 17% of the country’s power mix, while coal’s share dropped to 15%, marking a new low for the fossil fuel.
According to Ember's findings, solar power led the charge, growing 27% year-over-year, while wind generation increased 7%.
"We’re in a new paradigm," said Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember. "Solar did more to meet the rising demand for electricity last year than natural gas. And that’s at odds with the current narrative, where so much of the discussion has shifted toward building more gas plants."
Ember analyzed terawatt-hour electricity supply data to reach its conclusions, including generation from distributed and small-scale solar installations, such as rooftop panels and commercial solar systems.
Natural Gas Holds the Top Spot
Despite the rise of renewables, natural gas remains the dominant power source in the U.S., supplying 43% of the country’s electricity in 2024, up 3.3% from the previous year.
The Trump administration has positioned natural gas expansion as a key energy strategy, pushing for new pipelines and increased exports. Speaking at an energy conference in Houston this week, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized the administration’s commitment to fossil fuel infrastructure.
"Drill, baby, drill also requires build, baby, build," Wright said, underscoring the push for new gas pipelines in Alaska and New England and an accelerated approval process for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits.
Record-Breaking Solar Growth
Solar power's rapid expansion was a driving force behind coal’s decline. According to a report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, the U.S. installed 50 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity in 2024—the largest annual increase in power generation from any source in over two decades.
The SEIA report found that Solar and battery storage accounted for 84% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the grid last year.
State-by-State: Wind and Solar Surpass Coal in 24 States
The shift away from coal is happening across the country. Wind and solar have overtaken coal in 24 states, with Illinois becoming the latest to join the list in 2024, following Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Maryland in 2023.
Other states set new records in renewable generation:
- California and Nevada surpassed 30% solar power in their electricity mix for the first time (32% and 30%, respectively).
- California installed 20% more battery capacity than new solar capacity, allowing the state to store and shift more daytime solar generation to evening use.
- Texas added more solar and battery capacity than any other state, outpacing even California.
However, solar power adoption remains highly uneven. Twenty-eight states generated less than 5% of their electricity from solar in 2024, highlighting significant untapped potential—especially as battery storage technology improves.
"It shows that renewables can meet rising electricity demand," Jones said. "Solar is able, and wind is if it is given the chance. The fall in battery costs is a gamechanger for how much solar the U.S. electricity grid could integrate in the near future."
Offshore Wind Poised for a 2025 Comeback
Globally, offshore wind is set for a strong rebound in 2025 following a slowdown in new installations last year. According to Rystad Energy, capacity additions are expected to reach 19 GW in 2025, and sector-wide investment is projected to hit $80 billion.
China, the world’s largest offshore wind market, is leading the charge, accounting for 65% of new capacity additions. A record number of lease auctions and improving project economics are fueling expectations of a strong recovery for the industry.
A Defining Moment for the U.S. Energy Future
Wind and solar have now surpassed coal, marking a defining moment in the U.S. energy transition. While natural gas remains the backbone of the electricity system, renewables are expanding faster than expected, particularly with declining battery costs, unlocking more solar potential.
The pace of this transition, however, remains uncertain. The Government prioritization of fossil fuels raises questions about policy support for renewables while supply chain challenges and uneven state-level adoption continue to impact growth.
"The big question is whether the U.S. will lean into renewables or double down on fossil fuels," said an industry analyst.
The answer to that question could determine the shape of America’s power grid for decades.
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