Citizens Against LNG, Inc / Jody McCaffree Comment under CP13-483-000, et. al.. Exhibits 18 to 38 are being uploaded separately.
12/13/2015Prepared For: The Dow Chemical Company US Manufacturing and LNG Exports: Economic Contributions to the US Economy and Impacts on US Natural Gas Prices Prepared By: Charles River Associates 1201 F St, NW Suite 700 Washington, DC 20004 Date: February 25, 2013 Charles River Associates Authors Ken Ditzel Jeff Plewes Bob Broxson We would like to give special thanks to Lucy Fan, Pang Laohapairoj, and Jonathan Painley for their efforts in helping to prepare this report. We would also like to thank Harry Vroomen of The Fertilizer Institute for his valuable comments on the ammonia/fertilizer case study. Disclaimer The conclusions set forth herein are based on independent research and publicly available material. The views expressed herein are the views and opinions of the authors and do not reflect or represent the views of Charles River Associates or any of the organizations with which the authors are affiliated. Any opinion expressed herein shall not amount to any form of guarantee that the authors or Charles River Associates has determined or predicted future events or circumstances and no such reliance may be inferred or implied. The authors and Charles River Associates accept no duty of care or liability of any kind whatsoever to any party, and no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any party as a result of decisions made, or not made, or actions taken, or not taken, based on this paper. Detailed information about Charles River Associates, a registered trade name of CRA International, Inc., is available at www.crai.com. Copyright 2013 Charles River Associates Page ii Charles River Associates List of Figures Figure 1: Economic Contributions of Manufacturing Compared to LNG Exports, 5 Bcf/d Equivalent ..... 13 Figure 2: Geographic Distribution of Direct Construction Employment, 5 Bcf/d Equivalent................. 17 Figure 3: Geographic Distribution of Ongoing Employment, 5 Bcf/d Equivalent .................................. 17 Figure 4: Trade Impacts of 5 Bcf/d of Economic Activity in Manufacturing and LNG Exports ............. 19 Figure 5: Direct and Indirect Natural Gas Consumption by US Manufacturing .................................... 21 Figure 6: US Ammonia Production Capacity, Actual Production, and Imports .................................... 24 Figure 7: Historical Ammonia and Natural Gas Prices, 19982012 ..................................................... 24 Figure 8: Ammonia Producer Margins under Varying Ammonia Prices ............................................... 27 Figure 9: LNG Trades Volumes, 19802011 ........................................................................................ 28 Figure 10: World LNG Imports and Exports by Country in 2011 .......................................................... 29 Figure 11: World LNG Imports Forecast by Major Importers from 2013 to 2030 ................................. 31 Figure 12: LNG Supply Contracts (Above Four Years) in Force in 2011 ............................................. 33 Figur