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Mega-Mergers-to-Mega-Sales-The-Next-Phase-in-Oil-Chevron-ConocoPhillips-and-Occidental

 

  • U.S. oil giants need to sell $27 billion in assets to pay their investors.
  • Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum aim to raise to $23 billion from selling assets after their mergers.
  • As the largest wave of oil mergers in 25 years wraps up, a big asset sale is coming.

 

U.S. oil and gas companies are facing a tough task: unloading $27 billion in assets to pay their investors. This push comes as the largest wave of energy mergers in 25 years is about to clear its final regulatory checks.

Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum are aiming to raise between $16 billion and $23 billion from selling off assets after their mergers. Exxon Mobil, another major player, has been raising about $4 billion a year from sales since 2021 but hasn't set a specific target for future divestitures.

With fewer buyers and more stringent regulatory reviews, the process of selling these assets is likely to extend into next year, complicating the landscape for these oil giants.

Energy stocks are less appealing to investors these days, holding just 4.1% of the S&P 500—down sharply from their 2011 levels—as funds flow into tech and healthcare instead. The industry's shaky returns and the push towards greener portfolios are turning investors away.

The task of finding buyers for these assets is challenging. The usual crowd of buyers has thinned, with fewer institutional and European oil companies in the mix and a general cash shortage for such large transactions. Even private equity, once a reliable purchaser of big oil's leftovers, has shifted focus towards renewable energy and social impact projects.

The recent mergers have been massive, involving $180 billion across six deals since October. These mergers are primarily aimed at securing future oil reserves and are expected to be completed this year, potentially flooding the market with oil wells, pipelines, and other infrastructure. However, the lack of eager buyers might slow down sales or lead to swaps instead of straightforward cash deals.

Oil Giants Strategize Asset Sales

Exxon, fresh from its $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in May, is looking to divest conventional oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin. This move is part of its strategy to concentrate on assets with higher growth potential, a spokesperson confirmed.

Conoco is preparing to offload gas properties in Western Oklahoma, acquired through its $22.5 billion takeover of Marathon Oil. Similarly, Chevron is expected to market some of Hess' Asian offshore assets, as well as gas holdings in Canada and the U.S., according to sources who requested anonymity due to ongoing regulatory reviews.

Occidental is gearing up to sell shale assets in West Texas, which analysts believe could bring in around $1 billion. They also anticipate that Occidental will soon list assets in the Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East following the closure of its CrownRock acquisition.

Exxon has publicly stated that it is considering selling certain conventional oil holdings in West Texas and New Mexico, aligning with its broader portfolio management strategy. However, it has not announced any new asset sale targets post-Pioneer acquisition.

Both Conoco and Occidental have opted not to disclose their asset sales plans at this time.

Following the completion of its deal with Hess, a Chevron spokesperson revealed plans to put up for sale several "highly attractive" assets, projecting to generate between $10 billion to $15 billion in pre-tax proceeds by 2028.

Private, closely-held oil companies like Hilcorp, known for acquiring mature fields, smaller publicly traded oil producers, and investors from Asia and the Middle East are well-placed in the current market. Bankers note a rising interest from Japanese companies in U.S. natural gas. Jeffery Hildebrand's Hilcorp is reportedly eager to explore opportunities among the assets Big Oil is discarding, according to insiders.

Challenges in the Oil Asset Market

Luis Rhi from Barrow Hanley Global Investors remarked that the assets up for sale aren't the best in the industry, suggesting that companies might wait for a better market to sell. David Krieger of Covalence Investment Partners highlighted a significant mismatch between the assets on offer and the available investment funds, noting a decrease in dedicated oil and gas investment funds.

Brian Williams of Carl Marks Advisors pointed out that European oil giants, once active in U.S. shale, are unlikely to invest again after previous losses. According to data from Petrie Partners, the market for smaller deals has shrunk considerably, with only 78% of oil deals in 2023 costing less than $1 billion, down from 94% in 2019.

Todd Dittmann of Angelo Gordon & Co emphasized the rarity of sub-$1 billion acquisitions in the current market and noted widespread dissatisfaction among private equity investors due to difficulties exiting energy investments.

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Oil and Gas: Diamondback and Endeavor's $26 Billion Merger Redefines Permian Basin

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Diamondback's buyout of Endeavor happened about four months after ExxonMobil and Chevron made huge deals, with Exxon buying Pioneer Natural Resources for $59 billion and Chevron getting Hess for $53 billion. Even though 2023 was a slow year for company buyouts and mergers, with the total deals at $3.2 trillion (the lowest since 2013 and 47% less than the $6 trillion peak in 2021), the energy sector was still active. Experts think this buzz in energy deals is because these companies made a lot of money in 2022.

Who's Next after Diamondback? Potential Takeover Targets in the Permian Basin

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The $26 billion purchase of Endeavor Energy Resources by Diamondback Energy, with its stock up 2.6%, is the newest big deal combining oil and gas production in the Permian Basin under a few big companies

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Recently, the progress toward an energy transition is hitting a snag. Sales of electric vehicles are decelerating, and the growth in wind and solar power needs to be keeping pace with expectations. To make matters more challenging, electricity prices are climbing when they were expected to fall. Amidst these setbacks, the oil and gas sectors are proving resilient. According to BP's latest energy outlook, not only are these energy mainstays here to stay, but their demand is expected to remain relatively high even after reaching a peak. Interestingly, BP forecasts that oil demand will reach its zenith next year, marking a critical moment in energy consumption trends. This isn't the first time BP has projected a peak in oil demand. Back in 2019, their review anticipated a decline in demand growth, but the prediction fell flat. Instead, oil demand surged to unprecedented levels following the end of the global pandemic lockdowns, defying previous forecasts and underscoring the enduring dominance of traditional energy sources in the global market.

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Texas energy companies are picking up the pieces after Hurricane Beryl, an early Category 5 hurricane, hit the U.S. Gulf Coast earlier this week. However, it weakened to Category 1 by the time it made landfall in Texas. The hurricane brought heavy rainfall and sparked fears of storm surges, flooding, and tornadoes. As Hurricane Beryl neared, the natural gas supply to Freeport LNG’s export facility in Texas nearly stopped the day before the storm struck. Houston was particularly hard-hit, with the storm knocking out power for two million residents. CenterPoint Energy, a key power provider in the area, felt the brunt of the hurricane but aimed to have power restored to half the affected customers by the following day.

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The total number of drilling rigs actively exploring and producing oil and natural gas in the United States increased to 585 for the week ending July 5, up from 581 the previous week. Despite this recent uptick, the current count still falls short of last year's 680, indicating a slowdown in drilling activities. Analysts suggest that this reduction may reflect greater efficiency among shale producers, who now require fewer rigs. Nonetheless, concerns remain about whether some producers have enough viable drilling land

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